Election 2016 Speculation? Already?

Even though we are still deep in the 2012 election, I am already starting to hear speculation about who will run in the 2016 elections. I hear potential candidates for the Democratic ticket include: Martin O'Malley, Governor of Maryland; Kirsten Gillibrand, Senator from New York; Andrew Cuomo, New York Governor. I hear lots of speculations about both Democrats and Republicans that they view '16 as a good time for them to run. I have been trying to remember if talk this early, before the imminent election, is usual. Usually, these conversations come up right after an election. I think this is unusual. And I don't know if some Democrats think Obama winning is a done deal. Or, if they are thinking that Obama may lose, leaving the 2016 field wide open. It is a political guessing game that people play here in Washington, not that it does anyone any good.

Getting back to the 2012 election, I am curious to hear what ideas some of you have regarding who Romney will pick as a running mate. Here are some names I have heard:

·         Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas

·         Marco Rubio, Senator from Florida

·         Rick Santorum, presidential candidate

·         Bob McDonnell, Governor of Virginia

·         Mitch Daniels, Governor of Indiana

·         Rob Portman, Senator from Ohio

·         Paul Ryan, Congressman from Wisconsin

Who do you think Romney will pick? And as a follow-up question, when do you think Romney will wrap up the nomination?

Daylight Savings

Daylight savings gets me excited. It means at least one part of my commute is not driven in total darkness. It is nice to see some sunlight. Second, it means baseball season is around the corner. That is always fun. And last, it means the political season is about to get intense. These three always make for a fun and interesting time.

This summer I am especially excited to be invited to some CAP-PAC bike rides and other events. I am already trying to work a ride in with folks from Michigan. I am hoping for two or three other invitations.

Election 2012

Freshman Republican Members who rode in on the Tea Party wave in 2010 are now concerned that their own party will devour them. Some of these Members are very conservative but not enough to accommodate their constituents. I had breakfast last week with two freshman House Members and their chiefs of staff. One of them was elected in 2010 as a Tea Party candidate. She confided in me her concern that the Tea Party was looking for a candidate to run against her in the upcoming election. Apparently she is no longer conservative enough to satisfy her constituents. This is a difficult situation for Tea Party Members. They come to Washington with the intention of cutting government and now that they are elected, they are trying to legislate. This conflicts with constituents in their districts who do not want them to legislate but instead want them to stick to their principles. What this means for the 2012 elections, I don't know. It may result in a complete revolution, where everyone is thrown out. I do not know but I have heard this concern mentioned lately.

I still am pretty comfortable betting that the Democrats will take 12-15 seats in the House. They will be short of the 25 they need in order to take control though. Senate Democrats currently enjoy a 53-47 majority. I think this can easily be 50-50 or 51-49 in favor of the Republicans. Despite a very ugly nominating process at the Presidential level with Republicans and despite the dismal 10 percent public approval rating of Congress, I think the Democrats have an uphill struggle to capture the House. There is perhaps a little less of a battle on the other side, but nonetheless they face difficulty in keeping control of the Senate as well. This is weighing on everyone's minds right now.