Heavy Lifting May be Ahead with Administration

While I am always encouraged when administration officials ask questions about Community Action programs, I am concerned about some of the recent questions being raised.

Some people who decide spending priorities for the administration are asking questions that are reminiscent of George W. Bush or Ronald Reagan times. We are being asked to extraordinarily justify the value of our programs. It is conceivable that we may have a lot of heavy lifting to do with the administration on several of our programs.

On a related note, NCAF will be meeting with appropriations staff next week regarding the shocking administration decision on the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services made the decision to go with the lowest possible LIHEAP level when it released funds for the continuing resolution period.

This decision reversed instructions that were sent late in the summer by the Office of Management and Budget. The CR said that programs are to be funded at last year’s level. Instead, this distribution chooses the lower of the House and Senate bills. Nationwide, this is roughly a 47 percent cut.

Stay tuned.

How Will Voter Mood Effect Election Turn-Out?

I hope voter turn-out will be heavy next week. If not, Democrats may have a long night.

Keep in mind, among 2008 voters who had voted previously, McCain and Obama split the votes. If the new voters Obama brought out to the polls stay home this year, Democrats will be up the creek without a paddle.

Last week I was in Congressman John Spratt’s district in South Carolina. John Spratt is one of my all-time favorite members -- a national treasure – and he is in the race of his life. It is depressing to me that the country is better off having him in the U.S. Congress, yet it is an uphill battle for him to come back.

This week I was in Massachusetts with Congressman John Tierney. Again, Congressman Tierney is a good friend and an excellent member in a tough campaign.

Members in both parties who I regard as being incredibly essential for the functioning of our government are locked in very tight battles. Whether liberal or conservative, Democrat or Republican, I really see voters as angry, frustrated and feeling helpless.

I hope this frustration and helplessness doesn't translate into low voter participation.

State Governor Races May Impact Human Services

This has not been reported on much, but I sense that the environment for human services in a few critical states is really going to change after Nov. 2.

I am following a lot of gubernatorial races. In some states where Community Action Agencies currently feel they have a fairly friendly or at least a benign relationship with state's governor's office, things are likely to change for the worse.
 
More details to come.

 




P.S. If there is interest out there to have a post-election webinar with me on what the state and federal results mean to the Community Action network, please let me know. I would be happy to arrange something like this if there is ample interest.

Can Republicans Pick Up the Senate?

I still believe as firmly as ever that this is going to be a huge election year for Republicans. I now think it is possible, but not likely, that Republicans can pick up the Senate.

This is a change. I have been anticipating six or seven pick-ups by Senate Republicans. Now I am up to eight...and counting.  There are likely to be a few surprises in this election, and a few upsets people never counted on.

During the upcoming Energy Programs Leveraging Conference, I will lead a five-hour workshop on my complete election forecasts and potential impacts on the Community Action network.

For the last number of years, I have shared my predictions during a pre-Energy Conference election workshop. In 2006 and 2008, I was extremely accurate. However, this election I’m a bit nervous about. There are so many close races and numerous seats in play. It is much more difficult to predict outcomes. Nevertheless, I will attempt to do so during the workshop and through this blog.

Stay tuned.

Political Predictions

As I talk to incumbents and challengers and look closely at the Senate and House races, I am anticipating the narrowest of margins in the upcoming elections.

I think House Republicans will win between 44 and 47 Democratic seats. What doesn’t seem to be very well reported in the press is that as many as four Democrats will pick up Republican seats.

With 40 seats needed for Republicans to change control of the House, under my predictions, there will be a very narrow margin of control by either party. Under this scenario, governing will become increasingly more difficult.

I have some recognition of being fairly accurate in terms of election predictions, so a lot of members ask what I think. Last Friday I met with a senior, conservative House Republican who is very active in the Republican campaign agenda, and who also is a very good friend. He asked me what my predictions were. I told him 44 to 47.

He leaned over in a whisper and shared that Newt Gingrich had just given his inside predictions. It turns out that Newt told senior Republicans that he predicted gains of between 30 and 80 House seats. (Now, that’s precise.)

I ended up talking to a number of incumbent House members before they recessed on Thursday. Many of these members ought to be coasting into re-elections. Instead, incumbent Democrats and Republicans are in the races of their lives.

I will be glad when this political season is over.