It’s been just over two weeks since the midterm elections and I’ve already received two dozen phone calls about the elections in 2012. Potential candidates are already throwing their hats in the ring, defeated members are planning to run again, and much talk is centered on President Obama's prospects for winning a second term.
After Obama’s election in 2008, James Carville wrote a book in which he predicted that elections are going to favor Democrats for the next forty years. Though Carville overestimated the endurance of Democratic popularity -by 38 years- his prediction is an important reminder that the hyperbole following an election is really to be discounted; whether it’s about the demise of one party or the transcendence of another.
It’s been interesting to hear the number of people who, in the aftermath of the elections, are certain that President Obama will either be challenged in a primary and lose the general election or will not run at all. I actually think a primary challenge could potentially have one positive result for Democrats- re-energizing the base. One thing that is certain is that for President Obama to win a second term, Democrats cannot go into the 2012 elections as disenchanted as they were in 2010. As for predictions that his approval rating will be so low that he will not seek a second term, I am reminded of the first midterm elections of both Reagan and Clinton. Like Obama, both Reagan and Clinton’s parties faced great losses in their first midterm elections. Considering that both Reagan and Clinton were able to come roaring back to victory in the two years that followed, I’d say it’s far too soon to count President Obama out in 2012.
I'm nervous on three fronts about prospects for Community Action in the next Congress. First and foremost, I'm nervous about the number of candidates who got elected by promising to slash the cost of government programs. And since the election, everything I've heard from Speaker-designate Boehner indicates that the next year in Congress is going to be all about reducing spending. Second, with both parties pledging support for reducing the deficit, the easiest place to make those cuts is going to be from the domestic discretionary budget. Finally, I'm nervous about what President Obama's proposals will be. I've been hearing that all block cuts face significant reductions. And we're heading into this climate without Obey and without Kennedy. Any way you look at it, it's going to be a steep climb.
However, this program has faced many challenges throughout its history. It took some maneuvering to get the legislation passed in '64, and it faced serious doubts in '66. Nixon, Reagan, and the Bushes all fought the program, primarily on ideological grounds. Each time we've triumphed, and we've come out with more legislative friends at the end than we had in the beginning. That's my goal for this congress. Fortunately, there are a lot of potential new friends to meet!
Like probably everyone else in the country, I’m glad the midterm elections are behind us. There were few surprises on election night and a lot of heartache, as expected. There are some good members who won’t be returning. First and foremost, John Spratt of South Carolina; one of the greatest members I’ve ever worked with and an honorable public servant. Though he’s been battling Parkinson’s Disease, he ran again because Obama, and many others, told him the country needs him. And he lost.
As predicted, some other Democratic heavyweights in the House also lost- Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Chairman Jim Oberstar, and Armed Services Chairman Ike Skelton. Not many surprises on the Senate side- I’m glad Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid won a hard fought battle against Tea Party Candidate Sharron Angle. Political insiders in Washington tell me that Harry Reid ran the most perfect campaigns they’ve ever seen.
I was invited to a small luncheon with Speaker Pelosi on election day. Although I’m a Pelosi fan, I didn’t enjoy the lunch. I hate the hype, spin, and denial that occurs right before an election. The attendees were made up of a lot of “important people” in DC, who were very confident and convinced that the polls were wrong. When I expressed my differing opinion that I thought it was going to be an ugly night, it was not well received.
I was disappointed in the media coverage of the elections. I thought MSNBC and CNN both shortchanged House races. It was unsettling to be forced to watched Fox because they were covering Congressional House races that the other networks were not. Seven straight hours of Fox can spoil a week.
I’ve been asked if this is 1995 all over for me again. That’s the year in which the Republican takeover in Congress put most of our programs, especially CSBG, on the chopping block. It was a long, long year but ultimately a successful one. I don’t think this is 1995. However, I do think it is similar to 1983, the year in which, because of defeats and retirements, we needed to find new champions for our programs. I have many hours ahead of me that will need to be spent identifying new Democratic and Republican champions in Congress.
