Peaceful Revolution

There may be a peaceful revolution afoot. I think voters are sick of the gridlock in Washington. I think there is a chance voters will carry their sentiment to the polls next election. I think they may say look for candidates that are willing to work together. I have said before, now is the time for a third party, if there were a serious one. I look forward to what will develop politically in the next fifteen months. I think there will be lots of twists and turns to come. There are things we can only guess at today; things that we are perhaps unlikely to assume today. Surprising developments have yet to unfold that I believe will do so on the national political scale during the next year. Perhaps there will be more people running on the Republican side. Maybe there will be a landscape change. There could be a reasonable third party option. We may see a wave that sweeps out incumbents in larger numbers than we have seen in the past. I think much uncertainty lies ahead. Whatever happens, it will be a fascinating and wild ride.

War on Poverty – History and Future

My mind tends to be revved up on Sunday nights. I always lose sleep thinking about the week ahead and the work that has to be done. This week I am out West with a Senate candidate who wants to visit our agencies. I head to San Francisco to give a speech. The Partnership has asked me to speak 30 minutes late Friday morning at the end of their conference. I do hope people stick around to listen. The next three months in Congress are critical for Community Action. I want people to have the opportunity to hear what we are facing in the near future.

I finished a War on Poverty training last week and will deliver one next week in Raleigh that will be the last for this year. A new updated version of this training will be unveiled in 2012. I like talking and lecturing about the history of Community Action. What haunts me today is the idea that our history could be nearing an end. I often wonder where we are going to be in two, five, or ten years down the road. Our history is one thing, but I find myself thinking lately about our future. I am doing a fairly significant amount of writing on this topic for this project. For the first time I am writing without knowing the ending. I want do to something big to celebrate our 50th anniversary but 2014 seems a long way off. A more pressing priority is to remain focused on keeping our programs alive until then.

The Role of Community Action in a Smaller Government

I listened with interest to President Obama’s call for agency budgets for 2013. He called for an additional 10 percent in budget cuts above the FY 12 cuts of 5 percent. Government is shrinking. Federal funding on the discretionary side is contracting. The commitment of the federal government is declining. I do not believe that previous levels of federal government funding and support will be restored within our lifetime. The environment in which Community Action exists is disappearing-- and at an accelerated rate.

There remain many uncertainties about the future of Community Action in these new surroundings. We need to examine our business model and the number of agencies within our network, and think about how to succeed in this altered future. I think it brings about the critical need to scrutinize Community Action programs as well as many other domestic programs--particularly those impacting the poor. At some risk and certainly with the occasional criticism, I say we have to look very hard at just about every aspect of Community Action to figure out what works and what could be improved. We need to question all the basic assumptions, including our basic business model. Unless we take those steps, I think the environment in Washington will overcome or overwhelm us. At the very least, others will make those conjectures for us. There are questions that need to be asked, some considered heresy within our network. I do not know the answers to many of those questions, but I know we need to be asking them.

I worry that there are members within our community who fail to grasp the severity of this new environment. I continue to hear people explain away concerns raised with or opposition to our programs as being nothing more than a lack of understanding on behalf of our opponents. The current opposition we face is more than a lack of understanding. Some of these opponents know Community Action. They know and understand our programs, yet they continue to oppose us. This is something we need to consider.

I have been saying for a while that we need to gather people together to assist our network in thinking about the future of our programs. We need people who will identify our strengths and weaknesses. I am not sure who those people should be, but they should probably come from outside our network. I wonder if they are futurists or leading non-profit thinkers. Do they come from universities or from think tanks? I want to gather these people to think about the Community Action model. We do many things right. We could do some things better. We are at the point where, the clock is ticking; we need to be thinking about these questions today.

Despite stumblings by Governor Rick Perry and Representative Michelle Bachmann, I think the President faces a serious challenge in the 2012 elections. Namely, the biggest challenge for Obama is the 9.1 percent unemployment rate. That is a heck of an obstacle for any candidate seeking reelection. Next year’s election is going to be all about jobs. I have been in the company of Democratic operatives and I have heard folks remark that they look forward to running against a Bachmann or a Perry. People believe it will be easy to beat one of these candidates. It feels like déjà vu. I remember hearing those same sentiments in 1980 when Carter was running for reelection. People thought it was going to be easy for Carter to beat Reagan. That same conversation is taking place now. What matters most, though, is the unemployment rate. I have been traveling quite a bit and I have yet to find a community in the country that believes they are experiencing a recovery. What we do see is governmental spending dropping off a cliff. It is very unclear how we can get out of this mess. I do not necessarily see another depression, but likely another decade of stagnation in our future. The result will be ten to twenty years of prosperity lost. In the last decade, the middle class shrunk, poverty increased, wages stagnated, and the stock market stayed flat or suffered a loss. It is reminiscent of Japan in the 1990s. Some economists say that we need to get used to this, at least until 2020.

I think a lot of the unease in the public would subside with a solid 1 to 1.5 drop in the unemployment rate. Some of the public sentiment reflects the absolute gridlock in Congress. Some of it may be attributed to new Members, in particular Tea Party Members who do not want to compromise.

I have changed my odds on the Democrats keeping the Senate. I had given the Democrats a four out of ten chance they would retain the Senate, but have adjusted those odds to a50-50 chance. Number one, I think the quality of the candidates is propitious. There are some weak Republican candidates as well as opportunities for Democrats to pick up a seat or two. Number two, the Democrats are prepared. There is a chance the Democrats will hold onto the Senate.

Mark Hatfield

Mark Hatfield passed away last week. Mark Hatfield was elected to Congress in 1966 and retired in 1996. Hatfield, along with Obey and Harkin, was a champion of ours on CSBG. He was just absolutely the most honorable Senator I have ever worked with. I always felt he had more integrity, principle and values than most. I was lucky to have gotten to know him. I met him in 1981 and I kept up with him after he retired.

He and his wife lived on the fourth floor of a little 1920s or 1930s apartment building called The Senate. I would often go over to his apartment and his wife would fix us breakfast. We would talk and talk about the issues of the day, about things going on in the Senate. I thought Oregon was fortunate to have elected him in 1966. I thought America was lucky Oregon elected him. He was an advocate for quality programs and I remember he would not take lead on CSBG until problems in Oregon were fully addressed. I found in Hatfield a key Republican willing to step out and champion our program. He was a great person.

Along with Hatfield, Sargent Shriver and a few other key leaders recently passed away. I mourn not only their passing of people I knew, people that played an incredible role in protecting our program, but of the passing of a time when Washington was filled with great people. These were giants that walked in Washington. Their loss makes the city feel more coarse, a little less civil. I am sorry to think about these things.

Obama Administration Reminiscent of Carter’s

I continue to watch polls to gauge the public’s attitude toward Congress. The approval rating has dropped to a record low. It is approaching single digits. Some polls show 84 percent of the public disapproves of the job that Congress is doing. That disapproval rating is astronomically high and reflects what I am seeing around the country. The debt ceiling extension debate proved to be the tipping point, setting us up for a fourth wave election in a row. In 2006, voters fired Republicans from controlling the House and the Senate. Two years later, they fired Republicans from controlling the White House. In ’10, they fired House Democrats in response to their anger at a perceived poor job. It may very well be that in 2012, voters fire everybody--Democrats and Republicans alike. That threat exists. The level of disgust and anger toward Washington threatens both parties. This may be the most complicated or uncertain election in many years.

I spend time with senior level Democrats. As of late, in private conservations among them, you hear comparisons made of Obama and Carter. It started during the debt extension debate. Obama, like Carter, is viewed as weak on leadership. During the Carter administration, for the first time in polling history, Americans lost confidence about the future. More Americans were pessimistic than positive about the future. The majority of Americans thought that the future was going be worse than better. This phenomenon started in Carter’s administration and became a symbol of his administration. That changed under Reagan and again under Clinton. It was different under Bush, but now it is back. More Americans are less optimistic about the future. Some would say many Americans are far less optimistic that the lives of their children and grandchildren are going to be worse. It has been a month since that phenomenon started and it has accelerated. It is interesting how many elected officials and significant players in the Democratic Party, in hushed tones and whispers, have been saying this.

Storm Clouds Brewing for Both Sides

With fall in front of us, I look to see what is on the Congressional agenda. I need to see what comes out of Congress in order to understand how best for us to go forward. I anticipate Congress being late this year. I see uncertainties surrounding our programs and many other programs. There will be fights on spending, fights on authorization, fights on how we pay for other priorities. I feel things will be very contentious the rest of the year. Then I see a lull in 2012. Next year is shaping up to be all about politics.

Recently I have been spending time with quite a few high-ranking Democrats and Republicans. I have noted a few sentiments. There is a lot of nervousness on the Republican side regarding how their party can appeal to their activist base – the tea party group – while simultaneously work to break the gridlock in Washington. This creates an incredible problem for them. On the Democrat’s side, there is a clear lack of enthusiasm for President Obama and an uncertainty about what they see as the Democratic Congressional agenda. Both parties have storm clouds brewing and are trying to gauge how to best to run the bases in order to get where they want to be. It will be interesting to watch how things proceed.

The Democrats feel they can keep the Senate. The Republicans are targeting a number of Democratic Senators seats. The Republicans feel they have to defeat Obama. House Republicans are looking to expand their majority by 10-15 Members in the House. This all means that 2012 will be all about politics and not about legislating. The crunch for us will be the remaining months of 2011 and 2013. I am hopeful that there will be a little bit of relief from the current pressures. We will see.

Encountering Anti-Government Sentiment

I am in the middle of a heavy travel schedule. This week, I am in Florida teaching my history workshop. I continue to travel quite a bit of political traveling with Republicans and Democrats. We continue to visit CAP agencies, conferences and other venues. On these trips, I do a lot of talking about Washington. I am struck by how much the public, in the last six months – and I would argue noticeably since Memorial Day – how much the public has turned against Congress.

I felt the anger before but I also saw it in 2006, 2008 and 2010. That is nothing compared to what is out there now. There is anger and ridicule toward Congress. Although the recent fights in Congress may be partisanly motivated, they may ironically hurt both parties going forward. I find that when people know I work in Washington and with Congress, unfortunately, the conversation can get nasty, with strong anti-government sentiment. Especially when people realize I work as a lobbyist and work with low income, domestic programs. Everyone has an opinion. I understand, at least I think I understand people’s frustrations. What is out there right now though appears to be heading toward a tipping point. People are tired of Republicans; people are tired of Democrats. If ever in our history there was a time ripe for a third party to appeal to the middle of the road, to go beyond partisanship, that time is now. I have yet to run across people who are happy with either party.

Guardedly Optimistic about the Super Committee

Regarding the debt ceiling deal, the conventional wisdom in DC is that the “super committee” cannot work. The thinking is that the committee – the aftermath of the deficit reduction and debt ceiling deal – is going to consist of six Democrats versus six Republicans forcing gridlock, forcing deep across-the-board cuts. I don not agree with that line of thinking; I am optimistic about the super committee. I believe the gravity of the situation and the seriousness of the responsibility will give momentum to these individuals to come up with the $1.5 trillion dollars in spending cuts. I am leaning toward the idea that they are going to get things done.

The members appointed to the “super committee” are quality appointments by both the Democrats and the Republicans. I need to be convinced regarding Toomey’s interest in finding a compromise but Kyl and Portman are first class choices on behalf of the Senate Republicans. I like the Democratic appointments with Kerry and Murray from the Senate side and Representatives Clyburn and Chris Van Hollen from the House side. Clyburn is good on our issues and on low-income programs. Portman is a newly elected Senator. So far, I respect him and have high hopes for him.

Clearly, we want to see Members that have a sensitivity to low income programs but I am also looking for the intelligence, the experience and the wisdom to do right by our country. I see that in all these Members.

Earlier this year, I stated that I thought the CR would work out okay and I thought we would avoid a default of the debt ceiling. So far, I am two-for-two this year. I know the branch gets thinner the further out I walk but I am guardedly optimistic. In the end, I hope the Super Committee will do the right thing.

Two Years Lost

I asked a leading House Democrat what they thought the Obama legacy will be. They said the first two years will be recognized for health care reform, the stimulus, wall street reform, bank reform. The first two years will be noted for its successes. The last two years will be recognized for nothing. A failure. It is amazing to me how much I hear that. People are resigned to the fact that for '11 and '12, there will be nothing done to create jobs, nothing to invest in the country, nothing to move our country forward. That is two years lost. That troubles me.

On a positive note, I have been asked by various Members to accompany them on district visits during the month of August. This puts a strain on staff here in my office; it is a challenge to coordinate these visits. It is something I really like doing though and something I want to say yes to as much as possible. I hope to do more of these visits during Congressional breaks. It is easier to do district visits now – a year before elections. It is far less political. The fact that Members, both Democrats and Republicans, want to visit our programs means they want to learn about us and they have confidence in us. I like that. There are consequences to these visits and the stakes are high. We must put our best face forward and present ourselves in the best way imaginable.

More to Come on the Debt Ceiling

People should be aware that we are going to have a couple more months of public overdose on debt ceiling and deficit reduction talk. We now have a super committee that needs to make recommendations by the middle of November. Congress needs to vote on those recommendations by the end of December. The President has to formally request some sort of debt ceiling lifting in September or October. This is all amidst the appropriations discussions. Congress has yet to agree on what programs to cut. The White House stated that essential programs for low income and families will be protected with the debt ceiling deal. The question is, if push comes to shove, is CSBG an essential program.

Moving forward the discussions may not be as acrimonious as this past couple of weeks, but there will be plenty more bytes on this topic. The public that is so sick of this process can expect a second and a third dose this Fall. What strikes me in talking with Members is that I continue to hear – everywhere and from everyone – that the next 15 to 16 months is going to be all about deficits and spending cuts. Nothing is going to clear Congress. It saddens me that the debate has shifted. It is really unfortunate for both parties.

Debt Deal

Last week was a satisfying one. I saw a lot of Members; I had good conversations; my faith in Congress was renewed. I saw a variety of House Democrats and Republicans, including a very small private dinner with Leader Nancy Pelosi. I spoke with Majority Leader Reid. I knew the debt ceiling issue would get worked out. There were too many people working too hard to avoid economic calamity. It was an ugly, partisan process, but in the end, Congress did its job.

While last week renewed my faith, I know we face many more challenges ahead of us. This morning, I attended a Senate Democratic briefing on the debt ceiling deal. The debt deal lifted 2012 spending in the House, which was necessary for any maneuverability on our key programs. According to the White House, this debt deal basically means there will be $35 billion above the Ryan budget. Of that, I suspect a good chunk of it may go to Labor-HHS. This is what we have been talking about all year. It had to happen, and it did.